Holiday flights are getting pricier: what the latest fare data says about when to book
If you are planning to fly abroad or home for the holidays, The Points Guy's latest piece is worth a read before you hit the book button. Senior aviation reporter Sean Cudahy reports that airfares have risen an average of 23% since the war in Iran pushed up global oil prices. By Hopper's forecast, domestic Thanksgiving flights are up about 31% from last year, and Christmas and New Year's fares average roughly 23% more than last holiday season.
The advice is straightforward. Book as soon as you can, but leave room to rebook if the fare drops. Most major carriers allow changes or cancellations, so basic fares that restrict them are best avoided, and some AI fare-tracking tools can capture savings automatically if prices fall after you buy. According to TPG's tracking with Points Path, prices have stayed high but fairly steady since August, while last year both cash and award prices jumped in the final weeks before the holidays.
Timing matters as much as the booking date. For Thanksgiving, Monday, Nov. 23 is the cheapest departure day, with a return on Black Friday or the following Tuesday. Sunday, Nov. 29 is likely the priciest, roughly 40% more than Black Friday. For Christmas and New Year's, the weekends before and after Christmas and Sunday, Jan. 3 are expected to cost the most, while weekdays on either side of Christmas are usually cheapest.
The article also points out that airlines often will not cover hotels, meals or taxis during weather disruptions, and that new federal rules taking effect this month may limit compensation for mechanical delays. Flight cancellations have reached a four-year high in 2026, so it makes sense to book with a credit card that includes travel protections and to use expiring airline or hotel credits before the year ends.
Personally, the part I found most useful is the reminder to compare dates, airports and even destinations on tools like Google Flights or Kayak instead of fixing the plan first and the price later. If you live abroad and fly home every year, those few extra days of flexibility can matter more than any coupon.
Source: The Points Guy
The advice is straightforward. Book as soon as you can, but leave room to rebook if the fare drops. Most major carriers allow changes or cancellations, so basic fares that restrict them are best avoided, and some AI fare-tracking tools can capture savings automatically if prices fall after you buy. According to TPG's tracking with Points Path, prices have stayed high but fairly steady since August, while last year both cash and award prices jumped in the final weeks before the holidays.
Timing matters as much as the booking date. For Thanksgiving, Monday, Nov. 23 is the cheapest departure day, with a return on Black Friday or the following Tuesday. Sunday, Nov. 29 is likely the priciest, roughly 40% more than Black Friday. For Christmas and New Year's, the weekends before and after Christmas and Sunday, Jan. 3 are expected to cost the most, while weekdays on either side of Christmas are usually cheapest.
The article also points out that airlines often will not cover hotels, meals or taxis during weather disruptions, and that new federal rules taking effect this month may limit compensation for mechanical delays. Flight cancellations have reached a four-year high in 2026, so it makes sense to book with a credit card that includes travel protections and to use expiring airline or hotel credits before the year ends.
Personally, the part I found most useful is the reminder to compare dates, airports and even destinations on tools like Google Flights or Kayak instead of fixing the plan first and the price later. If you live abroad and fly home every year, those few extra days of flexibility can matter more than any coupon.
Source: The Points Guy
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